The excuse that the loss of Norwich North was just due to the popular local MP Ian Gibson standing down in protest at his being forced to give up his seat at the general election in the unprecedented circumstances of the expenses scandal simply won’t wash. It is true that it was widely felt, not least in his constituency, that he, among a few others, had been scapegoated when many others, including frontbenchers in both parties, were guilty of much more serious offences. By far the most blameworthy offences revealed by the Telegraph were the flipping of the designation of homes and the evasion of payment of taxes due, and several members both of the Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet were found liable on both these counts, yet no action has so far been taken against any of them. But having said that, there were clearly several other reasons for this further Labour calamity.

The 16.5% swing against Labour at Norwich North was very similar to the 17.5% swing against Labour at Crewe and Nantwich just over a year ago. Labour has now lost 5 by-elections in a row. There is a consistency here in these results which clearly points to more general trends. In addition to voters’ disgust at the expenses revelations where Labour as the governing party has taken the main brunt, there are at least two other major factors in play. One is obviously the steadily mounting impact of the recession in fast-rising unemployment, short-time working, home repossessions, and a generalised growth of insecurity. The other, which government apologists necessarily gloss over completely, is the deepening despair among Labour-sympathising electors that the Government has simply abandoned the social democratic base on which the Labour Party was founded and which has always provided the inspiration to its millions of members. That more than anything else explains why Labour’s share of the vote in Norwich North collapsed from 45% in 2005 to a miserable 18% now, not much above the worst ever 16% at the EU parliamentary elections.
So what needs to be done? Two things. First, a fundamental re-directioning of Government policy which will persuade now deeply sceptical Labour supporters that the Government is finally listening and is really taking on board their complaints and their demands. Second, that it is offering a real say to its activists in the development of policy (rather than constantly trying to outwit Cameron as though the Labour vote was all stitched up). Such a far-reaching re-examination of policy would be likely to include:
* exercising control over the banks to boost lending to businesses and consumers and thus reverse the rise in unemployment,
* tackling ballooning inequality at a time of deepeding recession by redistributing resources directly from the super-rich to those on the lowest incomes,
* protecting essential services from cutbacks by abandoning Trident replacement, ID cards and massively costly government IT database schemes, plus cracking down hard on tax avoidance and illicit us of tax havens,
* making a clean break with neo-liberal de-regulation and privatisation and expanding the role of public provision, not only in health care and education, but also in housing, transport, energy and pensions.

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