As 2010 hoves into view, the likely result of the election is already becoming a good deal clearer. For many months the polls have continued to flip-flop around a Tory lead of 6-17% depending on the poll methodology, the inbuilt biases of certain polls and the impact of the most recent events. Most polls show the lead at over 10%, and an average Tory lead at this time averaging around 10-12% seems plausible. Now the regular Rallings-Thrasher survey monitoring local by-election results month by month – likely if averaged across the whole country and over a long period of time to offer a more accurate register of electoral opinion – confirms this background and suggests how it may now be beginning to change. Whilst the Tory local byelection tally has averaged around 38% through the first half of 2009 and Labour around 24%, plus the Lib Dems vote showing wider fluctuations around 28%, the second half of 2009 has revealed one significant change. Whilst the Tory and Lib Dem tallies have remained the same, the Labour tally has risen steadily each month to reach 28% now. There are three reasons then which point strongly towards a hung Parliament.

First, if these figures turned out to be the actual result on election day, they would narrowly deprive the Tories of an overall majority. A 10% Tory lead, combined with the fact that Labour had a 3% majority over the Tories in the 2005 election, indicates a 6.5% swing towards the Tories, just short of the 6.9% they need to get an overall majority of 1. But there are two other factors which point strongly in the same direction. One is that the Lib Dems, who always do better in local elections than in the general, can expect their vote to be squeezed as the 2010 election approaches. That is what happened in 1997: a few months before the election the Lib Dems were registering 23%, but their actual vote on the day was 17%. A similar pattern this time round would see a significant number of Lib Dems switching to the two main parties, and if this does happen as seems very likely, it could markedly reduce the number of Tory wins, taking them further away from an overall majority.
The third factor is probably the most important, but also the most difficult to predict. The Labour vote appears to be hardening gradually but steadily over the last 6 months, and the big question is whether this trend continues. If it does, the difference in the final tally between the two main parties may turn out to be quite small. It still seems unlikely at this stage that Labour could pull off a fourth overall Labour victory since a loss of just 32 seats would deprive them of this prize. But if the Tory lead over Labour were as little as a few dozen, an unprecedented scenario could open up. There are already 94 MPs in the Commons out of 645 who are neither Tory nor Labour – a number that has been growing over the decades – and if that number were to rise still further, a new electoral pattern and a new governance could emerge not dissimilar to P.R., even without the formalities of electoral reform.

Bookmark to: