Withdrawing from Afghanistan has for a long time been the obviously right policy, but given that the tide of battle has clearly now turned decisively in favour of the Taliban, this will now be widely perceived at best as making a virtue of necessity and at worst as an early exit to stave off a defeat. There are several uncertainties in the situation. It is assumed that the combination of a military surge by nearly 40,000 reinforcements with the parallel enticement of jobs and community development projects will wean away most of the Taliban forces. A recent US Senate foreign relations committe report estimated the Taliban fighting strength at 15,000 and that only some 5% were committed ideologues, while 70% fought for money the so-called $10 a day Taliban.
Doubling this to win them over would cost just $300,000 a day, compared with the actual $165 million a day that the US is currently spending fighting the war. Whether however such a convenient money solution would appeal to a Taliban leadership that now sees victory in its sights and regards these concessions as a clear sign of Western weakness is another matter. It is highly unlikely that the gradual, progressive handover of power to local Afghan control will take place in the smooth, orderly fashion envisaged. Much more likely is accelerated NATO withdrawal from the countryside into the main towns and cities as ever more confident Taliban commanders pick off their targets with redoubled ferocity. But at least the die has been cast.

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