Cleggmania
April 18th, 2010The ironies abound. The only reason that Clegg was there in the debate at all was that Cameron agreed it. The only reason that the debate took place at all was that Cameron insisted on it. It was he who threw down the challenge in the first place, and when his own advisers strongly recommended against it – on the very good grounds that he was ahead in the polls and had everything to lose and nothing to gain – he overrode their advice. For Cameron is a vain man and was sure he would triumph, and didn’t want to miss an opportunity of proving it. He must be ruing it now.
But where does that leave the political scenario? Cleggmania is probably somewhat over-heated in the immediate aftermath, but there can be little doubt that Clegg has indeed lifted the Lib Dems into contention in a 3-horse race. The post-election position of the parties is clearly unpredictable at this point, but if the Lib Dems wind up with some 25% of the vote and around 100 seats, and neither Labour nor the Tories commands an overall majority – which seems at this stage a reasonable guess – what would Clegg do? He won’t of course tell us, and probably himself doesn’t at this point know, but his natural instincts would push him to ally with Cameron. If he did try to do this, he would split the Liberal Party down the middle, and just might provoke a re-alignment on the Left of British politics.
Of course his star could fade next Thursday as quickly as it rose meteor-like last Thursday. He will be under immense pressure, given the enormous expectation that he has generated – always a very problematic position for a politician. It will also of course depend a good deal on the other two as well – Brown would be well advised to let Cameron do the demolition job and stay above it himself, simply being the solid, experienced old-hand he is and not trying to pretend he’s something different (over-rehearsed jokes tend to show through). But Cameron is in the most tricky position, having delivered a performance well below expectation.
Who would have thought that this rather unexciting election could suddenly catch fire like this? We might even begin to discuss policy next.
April 19th, 2010 at 3:56 pm
So, Cameron`s old Etonian effortless superiority and assumed prime-ministerial air couldn`t compete with Clegg`s inchoate bitter cries from outcast Britain.
But this is far from the moment to take comfort in a Liberal surge to 100 plus seats as a buttress in coalition with 270 odd Labour bastions. Three party politics is a dangerous game in a first past-the-post system, it only takes a few national percentage points to turn the 270/100 split the other way round.
Rather than gloating in Labour`s ability to hold on, whatever the national swing, to so much of South Wales and other old coalfields there must be a realisation that this is indeed a moment for a new Left re-alignment.
Whatever Labour salvages from 6 May, be it 270 or 100, any surviving Lib-Lab government must be on the clearest terms of liberal social democracy:- Withdrawl from Afghanistan;
no Trident replacement,
no ID cards,
end antiterror laws,
maximum use of the nationalized banks, Royal Mail and the Post Office network to restructure banking for use and investment in manufacture,
end student fees,
a living wage,
social care free at the point of need funded by general taxation,
These are just starting points for the terms on which to make a unified Left coalition for a new Britain, democratic and social. It goes without saying that few, if any, of the current ministers should be in that government if the people are to have any faith in it.