Eurozone ‘recovery’ collapse gives Osborne excuse for his own failure as UK ‘recovery’ peters out.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) report yesterday that the average earnings growth rate has now fallen by 0.2%, the first time it has fallen below zero since the crash in 2008-9, is devastating for UK economic prospects and for Osborne’s bombastic claims about the great UK economic surge.   It is devastating because the only other three bases of demand are all seriously negative as well.    Business investment is still 10% below pre-crash levels because investors have no confidence that the UK recovery will last, net exports (the excess of exports over imports) are disastrously negative by about £115bn this year, and government expenditure is being screwed down by Osborne’s counter-productive policy of trying to reduce the deficit by cuts rather than public investment in stimulating the economy.   The fourth base for potential demand is household expenditure, and with average wages this year now nearly 2% below inflation, that source of demand will dry up completely.   Of course Osborne will crow about the 1.5 million jobs allegedly created in the private sector since 2010, but with two-fifths of them taken up by self-employment where the average drop in incomes is now 14% below pre-crash levels and  with the rest mainly low-paid, insecure jobs on zero hours contracts (wage slavery rather than jobs), there is certainly no increase in demand from that source either.

So BoE governor Carney’s talk of the recovery being on track and “sustained economic momentum more assured” is just absurd whistling in the wind.   He’s morphed into Robbie Williams’ actor’s capacity to have a voice and message to cover every contingency, Osborne’s fall guy who’s in a fog about what’s happening and has walked into a lamp-post but still assures us he knows exactly where he’s going.   But he doesn’t, and UK economic policy is now drifting dangerously.   The spin has got so bad that even IDS has got into the act by claiming his target is full employment – there are still 2.1  million people unemployed and nearly 9 million people economically inactive between 16-64 – when his contribution has been sanctioning (i.e. removing all benefits from) nearly 1 million unemployed people  in the last year very often for trivial or simply fabricated reasons because DWP Jobcetre officials have been given targets to do just that.

Of course Osborne will now try to distract attention by claiming it’s all the fault of the Eurozone where economic ‘recovery’ has now juddered to a halt, with all the 3 biggest economies now flatlining.   But that’s for completely different reasons in each case – Germany because of the loss of confidence because of the Russian embargo on food imports, France for lack of structural reforms, and Italy because inadequate growth has now now made it impossible to get down its growing debts so that it’s now entering its third recession in 2 years.   But the reasons for the gradual but steady economic slide that can now be predicted for the UK economy over the next 2 years are very different, nothing to do with the Eurozone, and the latter cannot let him off the hook on which he has impaled the UK.

4 thoughts on “Eurozone ‘recovery’ collapse gives Osborne excuse for his own failure as UK ‘recovery’ peters out.

  1. you go on about the self employed created by this lot inreality they on those horribl contracts were hrs are now and then but they been told by the jcp stool pigeon its the way to go with them showing them tax credits or working tax credits yourself will now whot im trying to say they will be called into the inland revenu office asking why they hadnt worked any more hrs ah they tell that person has you havent put enough hours in then you got to pay all we give you back yes after getting by on that pittance they now get to give it all back to rtu ids whot why you couldnt make this up its like one big flipping fairy story but of that horror kind jeff3

  2. This whole line of argument, (facile and completely inane,) that it’s all; “the other lot’s fault ,”and if you only vote for us we’ll somehow magically create a better world of sporty order, (it’s just around the corner,) overnight, of real jobs, fairness, prosperity and liquidity is both sterile and utterly patronizing.

    The great depression, with which the current desperate economic situation worldwide, has too much in common, can be viewed as having lasted from the stock market crash of October 1929 to the outbreak of WW II

    In 1930 President Hoover announced;

    March 1930:
    “More than 3.2 million people are unemployed, up from 1.5 million before the October, 1929 crash. President Hoover remains optimistic, however, stating that “all the evidences indicate that the worst effects of the crash upon unemployment will have passed during the next 60 days.”
    Does that sound at all familiar?
    March 1937:
    “The slow economic recovery made possible by New Deal programs suffers a setback as unemployment rises. FDR’s detractors call it the start of the “Roosevelt recession.”

    Once again there are no job and there is recovery.

  3. stacking shelves for those who take the bloood monies from this lot salvation army mind heart any charity but remember these aint jobs are they jeff3

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