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May 14, 2008

A tax black hole?

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When the hole in public revenues is around £40bn and millions of people are being squeezed by the rising costs of food, energy, housing and tax, why isn't Alistair Darling clawing back the enormous sums of tax avoided (legal, but immoral) or evaded (illegal) in order to help balance the books without putting up taxes for the rest of the population?

There is plenty of scope. A recent TUC pamphlet written by the tax accountant expert Richard Murphy found that tax avoidance and tax planning (artificially designed to pay little or no tax) by very rich individuals now amounts to £13bn a year and by companies a further £12bn a year.

So why wasn't it done in the budget? It was because of the stranglehold now exerted by the City over New Labour which has been persuaded that this financial enclave is central to the economic interests of the UK as a whole. Yet it is nothing of the kind. By bending over backwards to encourage hedge funds and private equity firms through the most egregious tax liberality (most recently the absurdly low 18% tax rate on their income from their "carry" or share of the gains on mammoth deals, less than half the income tax rate payable by top earners), the government has turned the UK, and specifically the City, into a gigantic tax haven for the internationally mobile business elite.

But by sucking talent and capital from other parts of the economy, it has been bought at a very high price. As the credit crunch is exposing, City profits on invisibles cannot compensate for the steady, continuing decline of Britain as a manufacturing nation. The volatility and excesses of the finance sector are outweighed by the million jobs lost in manufacturing in the last decade, the stagnant industrial output, the £7bn-a-month trade deficit, the weakness of manufacturing investment, and a so-called "knowledge economy" R&D restricted to a very few sectors.
The UK has even refused to allow the deduction of tax from interest payments within the EU which would hugely restrict the effectiveness of tax havens because a basic rate tax (probably 20%) would already have been deducted from that income before it reached the tax haven.

There can be little doubt that this was stymied to preserve the UK as a tax haven with its City links to its overseas protectorates and crown dependencies. Equally, maintaining fiscal independence from Europe may be a populist move, but in reality it enables the international corporations to play off the EU and other countries against each other in constantly bargaining for the lowest tax rates.

The fact is, the UK can no longer afford either the prohibitive cost of the tax privileges of the City cuckoo-in-the-nest or the collateral manufacturing damage inflicted on Britain as an industrial nation. The NGO Tax Justice Network calculate that the total assets held by the wealthiest people in the world in tax havens amounts to some $11.5tn, at a potential tax cost to world governments of about $255bn.

To put that in context, it is more than two times total global aid flows last year. In the UK alone, the tax amnesty for those holding bank accounts with the offshore branches of some UK high street banks in the main Crown Dependencies - Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man - is expected to yield recovery of £500m tax from 60,000 people admitting to undeclared income in these places.

Instead of occasional amnesties, all these UK dependencies and protectorates, including particularly the Cayman Islands, should be required to use the same standards of disclosure and accountability as the UK itself. And the UK standard itself should be tightened by requiring all UK-registered companies to report annually on all their overseas subsidiaries, including their revenues and numbers employed.

It would also be reasonable to phase out all allowances from those earning over £100,000, which would save more than £8bn. If the domicile rule, which is indefensible, were abolished, it would recoup £4.3bn in lost taxation. So-called "capital gains" on all assets held for less than a year should be subject to income tax, which would save perhaps £1-2 bn a year in otherwise lost tax. Investment income, like earned income, should be subject to national insurance charges, which would produce additional revenue of some £1.7bn a year.

The UK should also co-operate with other countries, particularly in Europe, to ensure that tax was paid where the taxable economic activity actually occurred, which would largely stop misallocation of profit to tax havens. More complex tax avoidance should be tackled by enshrining in law the general principle that wherever an otherwise commercial transaction is added to by any arrangement for the sole or main purpose of reducing tax liability, HMRC should disregard the latter and tax the transaction accordingly.

And so that both corporations and super-rich individuals understand that tax avoidance does not pay, HMRC, which is counter-productively being run down by 25% in the five years to 2010, should instead be built up substantially since at present each member of staff recovers 96 times their full cost of employment.

April 17, 2008

Market forces and capital crash-landings

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THE biggest question about Northern Rock is still not being asked. It’s not just about billions in loans and in guarantees from British taxpayers and how they can be redeemed. It’s not even about whether temporary public ownership at the outset would have been a better solution. It’s about what caused this systemic failure in international financial markets and how it cam now be put right.

The breakdown of financial market operations has become systematic. First, the new exotic securities in bonds and derivatives were generated because they offered the prospect of turning property lending, previously seen as a long-term business, into a short-term one with instant profits. Instead of waiting up to 25 years to recoup the loans, “structured investment vehicles” enabled banks to regain their funds straightaway so that they could lend them out again and make even more money. This process was repeated endlessly, with hedge funds, pension funds and insurance companies joining in frenzied rounds of buying and selling re-bundled mortgages and thus widening the repercussions of the crisis when it finally broke. SIVs and the labyrinthine “collateralised debt obligations” – the pooling structures which contained them – were not understood even by those who dealt in them. Repeated repackagings left what were always complex instruments bearing little or no value comparable with the original asset taken as collateral.

Moreover, many SIVs have been set in offshore financial havens with a reputation for secrecy and light controls. In fact, no regulatory agency demanded transparency and no auditor condemned the securitisation process on the grounds that it confounded the valuation of risk.

The crisis has also exposed the financial industry’s relentless drive for quick profits, irrespective of long-term security, in an environment woefully lacking in public accountability. The present dominant enterprise culture locks remuneration for chief executives, directors, markets and investors to short-term gains and creates perverse incentives for reckless behaviour. The rewards of Northern Rock’s directors over the past five years are a case in point: the £30 million they made in salaries, share incentives and bonuses were profit-driven, although the losses are now accruing to the taxpayer. This crisis is not a temporary glitch which can be got over as soon as a satisfactory buyer for Northern Rock can be found. The monumental scale of the losses – present and future – belies that.

Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the United States Federal Reserve, has already estimated the losses from bad mortgage loans at $150 billion. And that may grow, given that a staggering $1.3 trillion of sub-prime loans were set up in the two years to 2006 – of which nearly half may be unrecoverable.

In Britain, HSBC has already announced losses from its sub-prime business of nearly £1 billion, while other British banks have yet to make clear their write-downs, which must foretell a tightening of credit. When the British economy has long been kept afloat by easy credit – mortgage and credit card debt now amounting to some £1.35 trillion, which is greater than the country’s entire gross national product – the knock-on effects of this crisis will stretch far beyond the perpetrators in the financial sector.

As the enumeration of actual and potential losses reveals, the deregulatory, light-touch markets regime underpinning the neo-liberal ideology that has dominated the international economy since the 1980s has sustained a severe reverse from which it will take a very long time to recover – if it ever does. This may be seen as a repetition of the secondary banking crisis of 1974. The lessons of that time have clearly not been learned and an economic crisis has now returned with a vengeance: lack of prudential controls, regulatory capture, obscure accounting, absence of auditor independence and an economic elite driven by reckless short-term profit-making at the expense of the taxpayers who have to bail them out.

The risks of unregulated markets have now been shown to be far too great and it is clear the market on its own cannot establish the necessary supervision. Investors in loan-backed securities have not sought tougher monitoring because they were captured by the allure of the yields on offer, which Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, has compared to cocaine abuse. Auditors have been only too happy to offer a clean bill of health to companies in which they may have an interest. The Financial Services Authority, it has emerged, does not have inspectors dedicated to the regulation of banks or to monitor potentially worrying investments or to test financial products against risk of public detriment.

In view of this systemic failure in the financial sector and its kickback across the whole economy, what is now needed is a committee of inquiry into the governance, accounting and auditing of the banks. This should investigate offshore structures, complex derivatives, the lack of accounting transparency and the overriding need to align commercial incentives with public accountability. Otherwise the same problems will recur again – only worse.

April 15, 2008

The party's over

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With the latest action on Bear Stearns the most serious financial news yet, it is not too soon to envisage a new era.

The quarter century dominance of Keynesianism was overturned by the oil price-induced hyper-inflation of the 1970s, which paved the way initially for the rise of monetarism and thence the quarter century ascendancy of the Washington neo-liberal consensus. The sub-prime housing fiasco and the subsequent banking credit crunch, the results of which are still being felt across the international economy, are now bringing this period of hegemony to a close, not only because of western banks having to be bailed out by sovereign funds from China, Asia and the Middle East, but mainly because of systemic failure which is at risk of precipitating collapse.

The problems go far deeper than the demise of Northern Rock or the activities of a single rogue trader at Societe Generale. These were dealt with by the authorities as though they were isolated aberrations of a basically sound financial system, by trying in the former case to manipulate an alternative private takeover and in the latter to tighten the internal trader rules. This is like taping the fences to hold back the tsunami. The Treasury's recent proposals to allow the Bank of England to carry out secret rescue operations or the Financial Services Authority to seize the deposits of savers if a bank is in trouble, are scarcely any more useful. All these measures simply do not recognise the scale of the challenge that now confronts financial markets.

The whole nature of the global financial system has altered drastically in ways that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) can no longer control. The investment managers of private equity funds and major banks have displaced national banks and international bodies and extended their power far outside existing regulatory structures by "reintermediating" themselves between national and individual traditional borrowers on the one hand and the markets on the other. They have deregulated the world financial structure, making it far more unpredictable and liable to crises. Their business is to generate out-of-the-ordinary investment returns, which governs their reward, and it drives them to take ever-mounting risks.

It is ironic that the deregulation and liberalisation, which the IMF and the Washington consensus advocates championed so aggressively through the last three decades, have now spiralled out of control. That is the result of a conjunction of factors which has created hugely greater risk than they ever conceived. One is the entwining with the US fiscal and trade deficit which is still rising fast. The Bush administration has added over $4tn to the federal borrowing limit, which now stands at $9.8tn. The continuing devaluation of the US dollar has then driven banks and funds to see increasing financial risktaking as worthwhile.

Second is the rise of hedge funds, which now control assets worth $1.5tn worldwide, with the top 10 alone controlling $250bn. They are often highly profitable, but at the same time increasingly dangerous. Their reward structure encourages recklessness: the 26 leading hedge fund managers in 2005 earned on average $363m each. Altogether, hedge fund managers in the City and Wall Street took home $50bn last year. They depend on a constantly rising stock market, and current conditions expose their fragility. Even the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund meltdown in 1998 showed that banks simply do not understand the chain of exposure, yet today the financial network is much larger and more complex.

Third, hedge funds now deal in credit derivatives and a variety of other arcane financial instruments. The credit derivative market barely existed in 2001, and grew quite slowly until 2004, when it really took off, exceeding $17tn by the end of 2005. Their sheer complexity was designed partly to prevent their being copied, but mainly to package a seemingly attractive product which could generate enormous short-term gains. The downside, ignored while profits remained high, was the potential for unleashing a chain reaction of losses that could engulf the hedge funds that had jumped on the bandwagon. In the event the sub-prime market debacle provided the trigger. However, other devices, even more opaque, such as split capital trusts, collateralised debt obligations and market credit default swaps, have caused the IMF and senior financial regulators even more worry.

As these risks and problems have mounted inexorably, the IMF has undergone a structural and ideological crisis. Its outstanding credit and loans diminished sharply from $70bn in 2003 to less than $20bn now, drastically cutting its leverage over economic policy across the world. It is now actually in deficit. This trend has become even more pronounced as developing countries, mainly China provide even more foreign direct investment in other developing nations. That has now been extended further by the partial takeover of the western banking system - Citigroup, Barclays, UBS to name but a few - by Arab and Asian governments.

There are at least two other sides to this financial maelstrom. Both are again structural. One is the greatly increasing ratio of corporate debt loads to core earnings. Whilst interest rates remained low, leveraged loans provided a solution for firms that should have gone bankrupt, and now too often incompetent, debt-ridden firms find a market with hedge funds and other financial instruments. Another issue is that the speed and complexity of the deregulated market has generated widespread errors on a disturbing scale. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association recently found that 20% of deals, many involving billions of dollars, were subject to major errors.

The dangers that all these factors are exposing are slowly accumulating. The ticking time-bomb in the US banking system is not resetting sub-prime mortgage rates; it is the contractual ability of investors in mortgagee bonds to require banks to buy back the loans at face value - at present almost 10 times their market worth. In the UK the contagion affecting the banks is beginning to seep into other areas, notably the monoline insurers (who provide the insurance for bonds), and could well threaten the market for credit default swaps which, given its size - $45tn - could prove catastrophic.

The central banking and governmental response to the crisis - showering unlimited liquidity and huge tax cuts onto the markets - is no solution if, quite apart from exacerbating moral hazard, it leads to higher inflation, a falling dollar and higher long-term interest rates. On the other hand, for the authorities to be blackmailed into saving the current international financial structure at any price is simply to invite the next crisis, only sooner and worse. If we are to escape this situation being repeated again and again, what is needed is a frank recognition, however painful, that self-regulation has failed spectacularly and that a new system of international financial governance is now urgently needed in which the re-regulation of banking must be the least requirement if government and taxpayers are to be expected to guarantee deposits.

December 17, 2007

Letter to Gordon: Financial services industry needs to be regulated

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The Rt. Hon. Gordon Brown M.P.
The Prime Minister
10 Downing Street
London SW1

Dear Gordon,

Thank you for your response regarding the financial collapse of Northern Rock at yesterday’s PMQs. However, I feel that this issue cannot simply be resolved by finding a new buyer for the troubled firm, for the following reasons:

1. The means by which Northern Rock and other banks turned profits, by buying and selling mortgage bundles to other companies which may not have fully understood the terms of such loans, signal a remarkable and alarming shift in the banking industry. While previously the emphasis was placed on long-term investments and success, there is now a demonstrated pressure within the financial services industry to turn quick profits at any cost. This change in perspective must be reversed industry-wide, if we hope to prevent another bank failure of this scale.

2. The Northern Rock crisis has cost the British financial services industry dearly, and may still cost a great deal more has been so far acknowledged when Ben Bernanke has already estimated the losses from bad mortgage loans at $150 billion, a figure that may itself substantially grow when no less than $1.3 trillions of sub-prime loans were set up in the two years to 2006, nearly half of which may be irrecoverable. Our economy cannot withstand another blow of this magnitude, considering mortgage and credit card debt already now amounts to some £1.35 trillions. In order to truly protect lenders and buyers, immediate action to improve regulation of the financial services sector is clearly overdue and very necessary.

3. It is evident that Northern Rock was able to conduct business in this matter because of the lack of an independent, regulatory agency that could effectively monitor individual financial transactions. The Financial Services Authority, it has emerged, does not have inspectors dedicated to the regulation of banks or to monitor potentially worrying investments or to test financial products against risk of serious public detriment. This urgently needs correcting.

4. No regulatory agency had demanded transparency and no auditor had condemned the securitisation process on the grounds that it confounded the valuation of risk. What is now needed is a Committee of Inquiry into the governance, accounting and auditing of the banks. This should investigate offshore structures, complex derivatives, the lack of accounting transparency, and the overriding need to align commercial incentives with public accountability.

I very much hope you may now decide to set these reforms in hand.

Yours ever,

Rt. Hon. Michael Meacher M.P.

December 04, 2007

The economic record reassessed

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As growth begins to slip, for the first time in a decade the economic record is coming under critical scrutiny. Ten years of steady growth, inflation under control, rising incomes, low unemployment, and huge increases in public expenditure in health and education had seemed to make an unanswerable case. Neo-liberalism – the Anglo-Saxon model of flexible markets – appeared in the ascendancy. Or is it?

If the relevant indicators of economic performance over the last period for which comparative OECD figures are available (1999-2004) are taken to be growth of GDP, unemployment, consumer prices, income inequality, and balance of trade in goods and services as a percentage of GDP, the overall ranking of the UK among seven leading industrial nations is middling (3rd). The UK lies behind Sweden and Norway in 1st and 2nd positions, with the Netherlands, Germany and France (4th, 5th and 6th), and the US at the back of the pack (7th). On the key issue of competitiveness – as measured by relative unit costs in manufacturing, relative consumer prices, growth of exports of goods and services, and export-import performance – the US and UK come out 5th and sixth, while Sweden again is 1st, and Germany, France and Netherlands 2nd, 3rd and 4th, with Norway down at 7th after an ill-fated experiment with neo-liberal macroeconomic policies.

Even these figures don’t tell the full, or even the main, story. These indicators of macroeconomic performance measure essentially the means to important ends, not whether those ends have been secured. The ends are the achievement of a sufficient standard of living and economic security for all that will render society more stable and as a consequence more likely to reach a higher level of economic efficiency. As Ricardo noted nearly two centuries ago, the principal problem of political economy is how the gains from economic growth are distributed.

On that basis the neo-liberal economies, the US and UK, score far the worst and the Nordic countries, Sweden and Norway, far the best, with the central European states – the Netherlands, Germany and France – again in between. In the UK-US the richest 10% now take 15 times more of national income than the poorest 10%, whereas in Sweden-Norway it is only 6 times more. Similarly, in the US 17% are assessed as living below the poverty line (and 13% in the UK), but only 6% in Sweden and Norway. The proportion of adults lacking basic literacy skills is 21% in UK-US, but only 8% in Sweden-Norway. And the economic security index is very low in the US at 0.61 (and 0.74 in the UK), but extremely high at 0.93 in Norway and 0.98 in Sweden. Perhaps most significant of all is the social trust index. In the US only 36% say they trust ‘most people’; in the UK it is even lower, at 30%, while in Sweden and Norway it is 76%.

The story behind all these statistics is quite clear. In terms of economic performance and competitiveness, individual welfare and social well-being, the Nordic countries consistently score highest, the central European economies achieve the next best results, and the neo-liberal economies – the UK and the US – score worst. The conventional wisdom has got it spectacularly wrong.

Continue reading "The economic record reassessed" »

November 30, 2007

A lack of ambition

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After three decades of neglect and 1,634,000 households stranded on council waiting lists by 2005 (probably nearer 2 million by now), a house-building programme is finally getting under way. But it is nowhere near enough.

Investment in public housing has plummeted from 6.1% of government spending in 1981 to just 1.6% in 2005. What this means is that in current price terms the government is now spending £22bn less a year on public housing than it was spending at the end of the 1970s. Added to that the rent-setting formula for council housing has now been changed from the formula known as "pooled historic cost" to one that is partly related to the value of owner-occupied housing in the area. Rents have climbed steeply as a result. Those in council housing cannot hope to buy their way out in the private sector when the ratio of mortgage loans to income can be as much 8 or even 10:1.

A small increase in housing output will not necessarily stabilise, let alone bring down, house prices when the flow of house purchase lending, now at the staggering level of nearly £1tn a year, is rising so much faster. If extra house-building increases the stock by 1-2% a year, which the housing and regeneration bill - given its second reading yesterday - aims to achieve, while at the same time the credit available to buy it increases by, say, 5% or more a year, house prices won't fall.

What is really needed is a return nearer to historic levels of housing investment and a construction drive targeted at decent-quality council housing made available at rents related to the cost of construction and completely decoupled from ballooning prices in the private sector.

The government's aspirations are not ambitious enough. It proposes 200,000 new homes a year to 2016 (last year's total was 169,000), then 240,000 a year to 2020 - 3 million in all. But new household formation alone is now running at 220,000 a year, and if the accumulated unmet housing need of the half-million or more households living in overcrowded, bad quality or damp housing is to be dealt with within a 10-year programme, then at least an extra 270,000 homes a year is now required.

More pressing still, the government is proposing to build an extra 15,000 social rented homes a year, nearly all through housing associations. Council housing still remains largely taboo, since the Blair government only built an average 300 council houses a year compared with the 14,000 built even at the end of Thatcher's reign in 1990. But the latest surveys show that at least a further 20,000 social homes for rent are needed each year over and above the extra 15,000 in order to meet what is called "urgent newly arising" need and to halve, as the government intends, the numbers who are homeless or in temporary accommodation (currently 101,000). To achieve this, local authorities should now be allowed to borrow on the open market, as housing associations can, against the security of their existing housing stock. At present local authorities are forbidden to do so.

Less appealing in the new housing bill is the proposal to create an unaccountable regulator which would transfer key responsibilities away from elected ministers. This new quango will have control over such sensitive issues as the criteria for allocating accommodation, the nature of housing demand to be addressed, the extent to which demand is to supplied, the terms of tenancies, the levels of rent, procedures for addressing tenants' complaints, and even anti-social behaviour. After stock transfer, RSLs, ALMOs and right to buy have shifted half of council housing away from local government, this latest move could now go a long way to removing all the rest out of local democratic control.

Worse, profitmaking companies are to be allowed for the first time to register as social landlords under a lighter burden of regulation. And for the first time means-testing is to be included in the definition of social housing. This abandons one of fundamental founding principles of council housing which was to provide high-quality housing for all sections of society, not housing of last resort for those who can't afford anything better. Only 30 years ago, according to Professor John Hills, 20% of the richest tenth lived in social housing. Now, if this bill goes through, council estates will further concentrate deprivation and council housing will be further stigmatised when what the government ought to be doing is to promote council housing as a tenure of choice for those who wish it.

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November 07, 2007

New Labour Queen's Speech No 11

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Some useful proposals – though the devil may lie in the detail, not yet revealed – but disappointing on the vision and no razzmatazz of new ideas for a new leader, largely because Gordon Brown has already been leading on the domestic policy agenda for the past ten years and now has nothing much new to say.

It’s good that after two decades of neglect of social housing amidst the triumphalist ideology of private ownership, the national scandal of housing need is now at least being noticed. Council waiting lists are now above 1 ½ million and there are over 100,000 homeless, yet only 100 Council homes were built last year (down from 13,000 a year at the end of the Thatcher era). The housing stock is only growing by some 185,000 a year at present, yet the number of new households being formed each year is about 220,000. We are still going backwards. Building an extra 40,000 homes a year, as the Government proposes, is clearly nowhere near enough to meet the yawning gap of housing need. And how many of the 40,000 will be social housing anyway? And why are local authorities still not being allowed to build more Council houses themselves if they wish, borrowing against the security of their own existing housing stock?

Changes to the planning system, as is proposed, might seem sensible when some planning decisions have clearly taken far too long. The 8 years spent on the Heathrow Terminal 5 decision is usually quoted here (though much of that was accounted for by the time spent on Ministers’ desks after the planning report was submitted). But today’s proposals are motivated by very different criteria. National Policy Statements will be drawn up which will enable an array of major developments – nuclear power and nuclear waste facilities, coal-fired power stations, airport expansions, major road schemes, and large waste incinerators – to be put through without the public having a say on whether they are needed or safe, or where they are to be located. This rather conflicts with Brown’s stated wish to bring more democracy into public decisions.

A Climate Change Bill is very welcome, but again its contents leave a lot to be desired. It promises a review of progress in cutting carbon emissions every 5 years which is far too lax when the UK is way off track to meet the Government’s objectives. Clearly annual targets, published and enforceable, are urgently needed. Moreover, air travel and shipping emissions are omitted, even though they are the fastest rising sources of emissions. Nor are mere targets sufficient anyway when other Government policies, notably a tripling of airport capacity by 2030, are diametrically opposed.

Democratisation has also been one of Gordon’s ostensible goals, which is also desperately needed. But it has to stretch a great deal further than simply giving Parliament a vote before the country goes to war – a concession which after the Iraq debacle would probably be inevitable anyway. Parliament needs real new power on a much broader front – electing Select Committee members rather than letting the Whips use the patronage to gain a wider acquiescence, ratifying (or not) Cabinet nominations made by the PM, approving (or not) the membership and terms of reference of Committees of Inquiry proposed by the PM, and setting up their own Parliamentary Commissions to investigate controversial issues (e.g. extraordinary rendition) when the Government refuses to do so. Nor can the idea of greater democracy cut much ice when the Government is still intending to pursue the ID cards folly and, even worse, extend the 28-days detention without charge in defiance of the 800 year old habeas corpus.

And what is not in the Queen’s Speech is perhaps even more important than what is. There’s nothing about redressing the centralisation of power which is such an indictment of the current state of Britain. There’s nothing about redressing the grotesque inequality of income and wealth – nor was there is in the Pre-Budget Report a month ago. And there’s nothing about restoring the ethos of public service which has taken such a battering under Blair – indeed it’s taking a further hit currently with the huge cutbacks in BBC funding which threaten public service broadcasting. Et tu, Gordon?

September 06, 2007

Caution doesn't pay

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Why is pay restraint being imposed on the public sector? Inflation and interest rates are not at risk and the economy is in fine fettle.

It's bad enough, if you're a low-paid nurse, rail worker, prison officer, post office worker, or policeman, having to take a real terms pay cut this year when City bosses are paying themselves an average of 37% in pay increases, taking them to more than £55,000 a week, walking off in two days with what it takes you a year to earn. But why is pay restraint being imposed on the public sector in the first place?

Gordon Brown says he wants to do nothing that puts the control of inflation, low interest rates and a stable economy at risk. Hard to disagree with that. But none of these is at risk.

Consumer price inflation (CPI) dropped last month to just 1.9%, its lowest level for 18 months and below the government's target rate for inflation. Average earnings growth also actually fell in the year to June (the latest available information) to 3.3%, the lowest figure for more than four years.

The Bank of England's monetary policy committee had feared at the start of the year that an inflationary pay-price spiral might develop from rising world oil and gas prices, tightness in the labour market, and the impact of CPI outturns on inflation expectations. None of these, however, has materialised. We have seen instead lower domestic gas and electricity prices, slack in the labour markets because of high levels of immigration and more older people and women returning to work, and CPI inflation almost halving (down from 3.1% in March) over the last four months. So where is the big deal over public sector pay cuts?

Of course it's true that the government is planning to rein in public spending, after seven years of unprecedented increases, particularly on health and education, and this will form the centrepiece of the comprehensive spending review expected next month. But that is best achieved by requiring government departments and public service managers to contain expenditure increases within lower targets, no more than the overall growth rate of the economy, and allowing them through zero sum budgeting and other similar techniques to decide the optimal means to slow their budget spending - not by pre-empting their choices through central imposition of a pay cut on the lowest paid.

Even if that were not so, it is important not to run away with any idea that public spending is somehow careering out of control and that public service workers should be curbed because of their excesses. In fact, even after the run of spectacular increases of the last seven years, public spending's share of GDP last year was still (at 41.7%) well below its level in the Tory mid-1990s, when it varied throughout 1991-5 between 42.4% and 44.3%. Moreover, spending overruns in recent years in, for example, the NHS were not accounted for by nurses, porters, cleaners or junior medical staff, but by very large consultant and GP pay awards and PFI excesses. Why punish the lowest paid when they are not responsible and never had any of the spoils in the first place?

It is true that interest rates remain high, with the official Bank rate at 5.75% and likely to rise to 6% towards the end of this year, but this was largely aimed at damping down excessive asset inflation, particularly due to the lack of affordable housing supply (neglected by government policy for two decades) to meet rising demand throughout the south-east. What is needed now to deal with this problem is a radical change in government housing policy, of which there are some welcome signs, not pay restraint in the public sector, which is neither the cause nor even a symptom of the real underlying problem.

And as for not putting a stable economy at risk, - Gordon Brown's third point - it isn't at risk. It's in fine fettle. Growth is strong, inflation falling, employment rising, and the National Institute Economic Review notes in its latest report: "Currently there seems to be little inflationary pressure from the labour market."

So, is the case made out for pay cuts for the lowest paid public sector workers? Time to think again, Gordon.

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August 31, 2007

Holding the nation to ransom

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Payment of £14bn in City bonuses this year, according to Office of National Statistics data just published, exposes just how decadent this country has now become in the huge and growing rift in inequality between rich and poor. The great divide opened up in the 1980s under Thatcher; now New Labour has made it a lot worse – and that’s official.

City bonuses rose 30% in this last year from an already enormous £10.9bn in 2006. Average total pay for FTSE 100 Chief Executives increased last year by 37% to £2,875,000 a year, that is £55,288 a week. That’s 98 times their employees’ pay, 276 times the national minimum wage, and 658 times the basic State pension.

Inequality is now becoming the No.1 top political issue in Britain today. When nurses on low pay are being told they can only have a 1.9% increase this year and when prison officers and other public sector employees are smouldering over pay restraint as well as other issues, Bob Diamond of Barclays took home £23 million last year and Bart Becht of Reckitt Benckiser walked off with £22 million. It is shameful that in New Labour Britain such pay obscenities have been allowed to happen, indeed been encouraged by their let-the-markets-rip philosophy. As Peter Mandelson put it so charmingly: “We are quite relaxed about people becoming filthy rich”. What about the 12 million people in Britain today who are so poor that they have to subsist on Income Support? Since wealth and poverty are two sides of the same coin, where does that leave the poorest under the current neo-liberal economic agenda? Out of sight.

Several policy changes are needed:

The divide between top pay and average and low pay has now become so cast that it cannot be justified under any conceivable rational system of incentives. We need a Pay Commission to be established to set down guidelines (with tax sanctions to back them up) for a reasonable pay range between top and bottom which offers incentives that are consistent and fair throughout the range.
Bonuses, performance payments, so-called fringe benefits, and stock options are now so extensive and so concentrated on the richest in society that for this 1-2% or so at the top there should be a super-tax on these super-rich for their very large extra payments over and above basic salary, perhaps 50% on the first £250,000, 60% over £1 million, rising to 70% over £5 million.
We need an early Parliamentary debate and wide-ranging public discussion on this issue when it is stoking house price inflation, generating deep resentment among badly done by employees in key public sector services, and undermining all sense of any balanced social cohesion throughout the country.

Graphic: ONS

June 21, 2007

The case against private equity

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The stupendous gains accruing to Blackstones and its founder, Stephen Schwarzman, inspire a mixture of moral vituperation and ogling envy. Capitalism, however, notoriously has its self-correcting mechanisms, however brutal, and the stage looks set for a denouement.

Two factors are conspiring to bring this about. One is the sheer scale of private equity buyouts, £22 billion last year in the UK. They now employ a fifth of the private sector workforce. The other is the easy-credit environment that has fuelled the explosion, but now seems likely to crash.

Private equity, which began benignly as venture capital pumping investment into start-up businesses, has evolved into a different animal – going after healthy companies, restructuring them to yield huge gains for equity partners at the expense of job losses for employees and crippling the companies with debt.

One example has been the AA. Within months of buying it, the private equity owners Permira and CVC axed 3,400 jobs and reduced services.

The engine for private equity enrichment comes from three tax changes in the past ten years. In 1998 the Government introduced “taper relief” on capital gains, cutting capital gains tax for people owning shares in their own companies or unlisted businesses from 40 per cent to 10 per cent, if they had owned the asset for at least ten years.

The bonanza took off in 2002 when the Government changed the rules again so people needed to own shares only two years for the 10 per cent tax concession. When all companies with highly paid employees started elaborate “share-based” schemes to disguise income as capital gains to get the tax benefit, the Government in 2003 changed the rules to require that shares as part of pay be declared as income.

The private equity gravy train all but collapsed. However, unaccountably, the Government then exempted private equity from the new rules. Never have the super-rich been showered with such lucrative partiality by any Government.

I want to see six changes. First, the taper relief loophole in capital gains tax for private equity should be abolished.

Second, tax incentives should be “staircased” to encourage investment of ten years or more, and discourage asset-stripping.

Third, looting of company pension schemes to increase gains for private equity partners should be blocked.

Fourth, tax relief for leveraged buyouts should end.

Greater transparency is needed from private equity, in particular quarterly reports.

A final key reform is that private equity be required to state expected and intended impacts of a takeover on jobs, debt, investment, and the future of the target company.

April 10, 2007

No more new Labour: my radical challenge to Brown

From today's Times:
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Politics is in a curiously disorientated state in Britain today. On one side, old-style Toryism was voted out in 1997, and has now been replaced by a soft veneer of environmentalism and family-centredness that contrasts sharply with the excesses of private equity capitalism. On the other, the persistent shifting to the right under new Labour has now blown itself out, as the polls indicate, leaving a large segment of political space occupied by mainstream Labour opinion and probably a majority of the electorate as a whole largely disenfranchised.

This key part of the spectrum urgently needs representation to give it fresh direction — not old Labour either, but a modern progressive politics addressing the big issues now being ducked and championing key groups now being marginalised.

First, we need a change of direction to heal the divisions that are increasingly straining the fabric of our society. The Government has made some progress in reducing poverty, but not nearly enough. Inequalities are actually increasing. The average pay of the chief executives of the top FTSE 100 companies is now £46,150 a week, 250 times the minimum wage and 500 times the state pension, while at the same time there are still 12.5 million people, including more than 2 million children, living in households below the Government’s poverty line. This matters because reducing inequality leads to less violence, better health, longer life expectancy, lower teenage birth rates and higher educational attainment.

We need a new approach to cutting crime if we genuinely believe in being as tough on the causes of crime as on crime itself. It’s not sensible to go on banging people up even faster than we can build new prisons without tackling much harder the causes of criminality, and putting much more emphasis on reducing recidivism. Despite unprecedented increase in the use of custody, reconviction rates have soared. The hardline policy isn’t working.

We must drastically reduce the prison population, confining it to violent and dangerous offenders. We should provide instead secure units in the community where lesser offenders are required to attend compulsory courses on anger control, money management and parenting, and also to receive education and skills training and treatment for drug addiction and mental health needs, and are made to do unpaid work to repay the community.

Probably the best crime reduction value for money comes from parenting programmes and youth inclusion panels, bringing together local services to focus support on 8 to 13-year-olds at highest risk. Of course there are increased costs involved in intensive rehabilitation, but if prison places and reoffending costs can be significantly reduced, there should be a substantial net saving in public expenditure.

We need too to arrest the overcentralisation of power in this country. Key decisions, such as the replacement of Trident and the restoration of nuclear energy, should not be taken without consultation of the Cabinet, Parliament and public opinion.

Indeed, the most direct way to win back public trust and reconnect with the electorate is for the Government to be seen as genuinely accountable, listening and being prepared to adjust in the face of strong public demand.

It also means Parliament reasserting its authority by taking the right to ratify (or not) nominations to the Cabinet made by the Prime Minister, by appointing committees of inquiry where the Government refuses to do so (as over rendition flights), by ending the Royal Prerogative whereby the Prime Minister can unilaterally declare war and authorise military action, and through its select committees tabling its own motions for debate and voting on the floor of the Commons. Giving the public the right to initiate legislation through referendums is another issue to explore.

We also need much more vigorously to tackle the greatest threat facing the world today: climate change. It must permeate every policy area of Government — not just energy, but transport, industry, building, agriculture, public expenditure and taxation, and foreign policy. It is not enough merely to talk of the end of oil dependence when our electricity generation from renewable energy is, at just 4 per cent, by far the lowest in Europe.

We need an overall plan to meet the scientists’ target of reducing carbon emissions by at least 60 per cent by 2050. It is a colossal challenge, but a win-win-win-win scenario. It will increase energy efficiency hugely, create large savings for industry and some of our poorest households, protect our economy against sudden destabilising external shocks and safeguard us from climate catastrophe.

Finally, we must stop being subservient to the US. We can’t go on being America’s glove puppet, as we have been over Iraq and Lebanon, and, most worryingly, Iran. We need a foreign policy that robustly reasserts our own essential British interests and our commitment to the UN. The first demonstration of that should be strong opposition to any potential US or Israeli attack on Iran, and insistence that the nuclear impasse must be resolved by negotiation or by UN sanctions, not by violence.

We should take the advice not of the US but of British military commanders on the spot in speeding up our troop withdrawal from Iraq. And we should push for a wider international peace conference for a joint settlement of interconnected Middle East issues that cannot be solved one by one. The latest reports of a US change of heart about talking to Iran and Syria make this now a serious possibility.

It is because I believe that radical new policies of this kind would reenergise politics in this country that I am standing for the leadership of the Labour Party.

www.michaelmeacher.info

April 01, 2007

How Gordon Brown allows billions to slip through his fingers

From The Daily Express (30 March 2007, not in online edition, so no hyperlink.)

I WOULD like to introduce you to the luckiest people in Britain.

There are about 60,000 of them – and they have won the National Lottery jackpot without ever buying a ticket.

These are the super-rich people who enjoy what is officially called non-domicile status as taxpayers – but I prefer to call them tax asylum seekers, in search of refugee status for their money.

How did this happen? In this year of amazing grace it is worth remembering that it is the last survival of the slave trade in Britain's tax system.

It was originally introduced by Pitt the Younger in 1799 to relieve colonial fortunes – many derived from slavery – from his new-fangled income tax.

Because the inheritors of this tax loophole today have some connection with a foreign country, our tax authorities give them a sweetheart deal like no other in the world.

Basically, they pay tax only on the income they choose to bring to Britain. They can hide the rest of their money in a letterbox bank in a tax haven, or even flaunt it through yachts and palaces and public fortunes overseas, and Britain never sees a penny of it.

When you and I begin to earn any substantial money we have to pay 40 per cent tax on it. But according to top accountants Grant Thornton, the tax asylum seekers pay an effective rate of 0.4 per cent on their money – 100 times less.

AT A time when the NHS is being cut, when nurses' pay is being cut, the Treasury waves goodbye each year to tax on personal fortunes worth £126billion.

That would provide more than enough to pull the NHS out of debt and pay for all of Tony Blair's failed IT schemes.

I have nothing against people who become super-rich by hard work or invention. But these particular super-rich people are having a laugh at our country.

They treat it like a club – they can drop into it just when they like and use all the facilities without paying a membership fee. They just give a tip to the doorman – and the doorman's name is Gordon Brown.

He bows gratefully and waves them in. If they are British or Commonwealth citizens, the tax asylum seekers can vote in British elections – and help decide tax levels for other people. They can give money to political parties, and buy influence and access to power. They can even be members of the House of Lords and vote on laws for other people.

Amazingly, Parliament has never approved or even debated the privileges of the tax asylum seekers, at least not in modern times. The status of nondomiciled taxpayers is a relic from more than 200 years ago, when it was invented to spare tax on men who had made their money in the colonies – often from the slave trade.

Parliament has never created any rules to govern nondomicile tax status. These have been invented by our tax authorities, who are regarded internationally as extremely easy going. However hard it is for them to enter the Kingdom of Heaven, the super-rich have no difficulty entering the United Kingdom of Tax Haven.

In 1997, the Labour Party – and Gordon Brown as Treasury spokesman – came to power promising to get a grip on this issue. For five years as Chancellor he did nothing.

Then, under pressure, he announced an urgent inquiry.

It still has not reported. Thank goodness it was an urgent inquiry – I don't think it can hold out until 2020.

The super-rich have very good lobbyists and for decades they have bamboozled the Treasury with two arguments.

First, they claim that the super-rich bring inward investment into Britain. In fact, the rules for non-domicile status give the super-rich a cast-iron motive to keep money out of Britain, not bring it in.

SECOND, they argue that without the nondomicile rule, the superrich would pack their bags and leave, ruining the banks, estate agents, fine art dealers, luxury boutiques and football clubs which take their money. But this is unlikely, because no other country in the world offers them such a perfect hotel for their money. Not even the US under George W Bush, the most pro-rich president in American history.

It is time that Parliament had its say on this ancient anomaly. It is making a mockery of our tax system and devaluing our whole country.

At the very least, Brown should publish the results of his long-running review of nondomicile tax status. Five years is more than enough time to collect evidence and views.

The British people and Parliament are entitled to know how many people have claimed non-domicile status in the past 10 years; how many were refused; what was the total amount of tax paid by non-domiciled taxpayers; and what estimate the Treasury has made of the income and assets they hold overseas.

If the Treasury has any reliable evidence of economic benefit from non-domicile tax status, they should publish it so that it can be weighed against the potential revenue from ending this enormous loophole.

Better still, Gordon Brown can use his last year at the Treasury to end the anomaly and make the super-rich pay the same taxes as any other resident taxpayer. It would be especially fitting this year for him to abolish a rule which is the last relic of the slave trade.

March 30, 2007

Private Equity - BOOTS

Now that KKR has obtained access to the books at Boots, the likelihood of a private equity takeover is very disturbing after the biggest private equity company PERMIRA took over the AA and Birds Eye leading to a loss of over 4000 jobs.

I am writing today to Alistair Darling, the Secretary of State at the DTI, asking that where healthy, well-managed companies like Boots are threatened, he should establish a Takeover Commission to assess whether such bids are in the public interest or not, and to block them if an independent commission judges they are not.

I am asking him to lay down the terms of reference of such a Commission, which should specify the range of conditions which would have to be met to ensure the wider public interest is safeguarded.

One of the conditions should be that a contractual statement should have to be provided by the private equity company about how its takeover would affect the employment, the pay and terms and conditions of existing staff for a specified period.

I am proposing to the Secretary of State that the company would be legally liable for implementing, and not reneging from, the commitments made in its prior statement to the Takeover Commission.

March 22, 2007

The Budget

In yesterday's Budget, Gordon Brown pre-empted the Tories by, in effect, doing their work for them - cutting corporation Tax and cutting the basic income tax rate. What he has not done is produce a real Labour Budget which would dramatically cut growing inequality by ending glaring tax loopholes that favour the rich. (E.g. non domicile tax status for the super rich and the taper relief exemption for private equity investors) while at the same time raising the basic State pension to pensioner credit level as of right for all pensioners and linking all future increases in the pension to earnings.

He has not tackled environmental issues adequately. His policy of bringing the airlines into the EU Emissions Trading Scheme in several years time will not deter the fastest rising cause of greenhouse gas emissions. Bringing in a carbon entitlement for individual households in 2012 is far too late. He has done nothing to increase the pathetically low level of electricity generation in UK from renewable sources of energy, still stuck at 4% when the rest of the EU level is 20-25%. Building standards and energy efficiency still remain disappointingly low and he has refused, wrongly, to earmark all green taxes for expenditure on better green alternatives (e.g. bus rail and smaller engine cars).

March 21, 2007

An independent foreign policy

Michael's speech to the People's Assembly against the War, yesterday evening in Westminster.

March 19, 2007

Wednesday's Budget should deal with private equity issues

I'm hoping to meet workers from the AA and NCP tonight, just before the adjournment debate I've been able to secure.

Private equity firms are now going after healthy, well-managed companies, looting them in the interests of huge personal gains for themselves at the expense of enormous job losses for employees and crippling the companies with debt.

Examples include AA - where within months of buying it the private equity owners Permira and CVC Capital had cut 3,400 jobs and reduced front-line services for motorists drastically. Birds Eye - where Permira pledged to keep workers’ employment terms for at least 3 years, then within 5 months closed a plant in Hull at the cost of 600 jobs.
Debenhams - where the private equity partners increased the firm’s debt from £100m to £1.9bn, paid themselves a dividend of £1.2bn, sold the freehold of the stores for £500m and leased them back, and then floated the business and took another £600m, thus making 3 ½ times their investment in a little over 2 years and leaving Debenhams with huge interest payments and rent on stores it once owned.

Private Equity is now lining up Sainsbury’s and Boots for the same treatment. As Roberto Italia, then of Warburg Pincus, now of Cinven private equity, has said: “Of course we’re out to shaft the companies we invest in.”

I want to see six major changes in Wednesday's budget:

1 The taper relief loophole in capital gains tax for private equity firms should be immediately ended.
2 Tax incentives should be ‘staircased’ to encourage long-term investment of 10 years or more, and to discourage short-term in-and-out asset-stripping.
3 The restructuring of company pension schemes to increase personal gains for private equity partners should be blocked.
4 There should be much greater transparency required from private equity operations, in particular the requirement to provide full quarterly reports in the same way as publicly quoted companies.
5 The provision of tax relief for leveraged buy-outs should be ended.
6 Private equity firms should be required beforehand to provide a public interest statement of the expected and intended impacts of the takeover on jobs, debt, investment, and the longer term future of the target company, and this statement should be contractually binding for a stated period at least as far as employment is concerned.

The engine for this private equity plundering comes from three tax changes made in the last ten years. First, in 1998 the Government introduced ‘taper relief’ on capital gains, slashing capital gains tax for people owning shares in their own companies or in unlisted businesses from 40% to just 10%, provided they had owned the asset for 10 years. The real bonanza started in 2002 when the Government, amazingly, changed the rules again so that people only needed to own shares for 2 years to qualify for the hugely valuable 10% tax concession. Then when all companies with highly-paid employees started setting up elaborate ‘share-based’ pay schemes designed to disguise income as capital gains, the Government in 2003 changes the rules yet again to require that shares received as part of a pay package be declared as income. The private equity gravy train nearly ground to a halt. However, unaccountably, the Government then exempted private equity from the new rules. The gravy train rolls on as a special deal for private equity.

This loophole is costing the Treasury a fortune. From a mega-fund buy-out of £10bn such as is being put together for Sainsbury’s, the private equity partners might expect to walk away after a few years with perhaps £2.8bn. If that were taxed as income, the Government would get £1.1bn in tax. But taxed as a capital gain, the effective tax rate might be as low as 7.5%, or just £210m. The Treasury thus loses £900m. Official figures show that this loophole is costing the Treasury a fortune, with taper relief costing the Government £4.5bn this year, up from £550m in 1998.

March 13, 2007

Objectives for the EU

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I think there are four key challenges now facing the EU. First, Europe's economic problems cannot be solved with supply side reforms alone. Weak domestic demand in many cases, made worse by the constriction of the Stability and Growth Pact, should be tackled by setting up a counter cyclical European Recovery Fund and by developing ECOFIN as a real political counterpart to the European Central Bank.

Second, the EU's response to the global economy should be smarter than simply posing a choice between liberalisation and protectionism. It should seek to stabilise exchange rates and prevent speculative capital flows from destabilising healthy economies through a Tobin tax. It should press for an international clearing union to smooth trade imbalances by requiring countries to recycle their surpluses to maintain global demand. And it should take the lead in benchmarking social and environmental standards into world trade rules.

Third, the EU should give its social model a more distinctive European form. To deal with collapsing corporate provision, it should set up a European social fund into which companies should contribute a proportion of their profits to meet at least some of the spending needed to guarantee security in retirement as well as providing at least minimum standards for a European childcare guarantee.

Fourth, it must democratise EU politics so as to enable Europeans to feel involved in a common political debate about their future. Maybe a new Preseident of the European Council should lead on Europe-wide elections so that electors voted more as Europeans.

March 11, 2007

Interview from Labourhome

March 08, 2007

From the Spectator (3 March 2007)

Meacher: why Spectator readers should vote for me

A leadership election opens up, uniquely, the opportunity to debate and decide on the future course of a government. I am standing because I believe there are several areas of policy where a fundamental change of direction is now needed. And though Spectator readers may initially be sceptical about the relevance of my policies to them, I believe that if they read on with an open mind, they'll find much that they agree with. I'm sure they'll agree, for instance, that New Labour and Tory policies have become similar, almost overlapping, which means that politics has become increasingly fixated on personalities, as though a blanket consensus on policy had been achieved. This is ridiculous. Old-style Toryism was rejected in 1997, and now New Labour - the continuing moving-right show - has clearly faded. It's time, not for Old Labour either, but for a mainstream Labour approach - which may well represent majority opinion within the electorate but has been suppressed for over a decade - to be reasserted as a modern progressive politics with new solutions to today's profound problems.

Continue reading "From the Spectator (3 March 2007)" »

March 07, 2007

Michael Meacher: You ask the questions

(From the Independent)

Labour leadership contender answers your questions, such as 'Why not sell your flats to help fight against poverty?' & 'What's your guilty pleasure?'
Published: 05 March 2007

Are you a socialist? What does that mean today? MIKE WOODBRIDGE, Brighton

Yes, I am. A socialist believes that while the market has its proper place, the fundamental principles underpinning society should be equity, social justice, equality of opportunity, and democratic accountability. Even where the market is a dominant force, socialists believe it should be regulated to ensure high environmental, social and labour standards.


Why, as a socialist, do you own so many houses? GARY BROWNE, Glasgow

As I have regularly stated in the register of Members' interests, I own four flats. I have saved throughout my life, and put my savings into property. I don't think [that] is contrary to socialism.


Given your views on poverty, why not sell some of your houses and give the money to charity? Or are you just another hypocritical politician? V AHMAD, Birmingham

I already give a significant amount to charity . I agree there is an urgent need to build much more social, affordable housing but selling my flats which are already occupied would not contribute one iota to that.


Isn't it delusional of you to challenge Gordon Brown for the Labour leadership? MAURICE BURKE, Birmingham

No. There should be a contest because only an election enables us to debate the real policy issues. I also believe that members of the Labour Party should have the right to choose their own leaders. I believe, too, that as New Labour, of which Gordon Brown is perhaps the main architect, has moved continually ever further to the right, the mainstream majority of the party has been left disenfranchised and without a voice. It is not sensible to assume the results of any election before the electors have had a chance to deliver their opinion which may sometimes come as rather a shock to the chattering classes. Not too many people I guess expected David Cameron to come from behind and win the Tory Party leadership.


Don't you think Gordon offers Labour the best hope of winning the next election? VALERIE EVANS, Cardiff

Have you seen the last two polls? Both put the Tories 11 per cent ahead, and one poll found that if Gordon was leader, the Tories would be 13 per cent ahead.


I am a Labour supporter, but I despair that Gordon Brown has been such a coward over the war, talks nonsense on 'Britishness' and seems so in love with Rupert Murdoch that he will hand the next election to Cameron. Do you agree - and if not, which bits do you disagree with and why? DAVE FISCHER, Sheffield

Cameron has certainly, at this stage at least, improved the Tories' poll ratings, but not, I think, for the reasons you give.


A majority on the Labour left support John McDonnell and see your campaign as a spoiler which will only split the vote and stop a contest. Will you stand down if John has more nominations when Blair resigns? SUSAN PRESS, Calder Valley

There is no evidence whatever that a majority of people on the Labour Party left and the affiliated trade union movement support John McDonnell for leader. I have a great deal of respect for John, but I don't believe he can get the necessary 45 nominations, whereas I believe I can. I am not splitting the vote, but rather giving the centre-left the chance, to run a candidate who can pass the nominations threshold. But I do agree that whichever of the two of us has the larger number of nominations, the other should stand down when Tony Blair resigns.


Why not use that photo of you on Blackpool beach (very Daniel Craig) for your campaign posters? CONOR MURPHY, Reading

Good try. At least it shows I'm healthy.


Do you think Blair should stand down now?STEVE HARRISON, Bolton

The sooner he stands down, the better.


Why did you vote in favour of the invasion of Iraq?DEAN PALMER, Norwich

I made the biggest mistake of my political life when I supported the war, on the grounds that the Prime Minister repeatedly gave chapter and verse about Saddam's weapons of mass destruction and assured us that if only we knew all the intelligence available to him, we would have no doubts about the necessity for this action. I still find it deeply disturbing for democracy that a prime minister can so massage and fabricate the evidence in order to push through a preconceived war plan.


Do you think Blair lied to his MPs and lied to the country over Iraq?JEFF TERRY, Dundee

I think the highly selective manipulation of such evidence as there was, together with the highly prejudicial use to which it was put, was deeply dishonest.


You claim you were misled that Saddam had a WMD programme. Yet you say the West has no right to tell Iran not to develop nuclear weapons. Aren't you being rather inconsistent over Iraq and Iran?JIM ROLAND, London NW11

No, these are two quite separate arguments. Yes, we were certainly misled over Saddam's alleged WMD programme. While we should try to prevent Iranian nuclear weapons by negotiation and UN sanctions, we cannot say that nuclear weapons are indispensable for our own security, and then say Iran does not need them for their own security, especially when Iran (unlike the West) is surrounded by seven states which are nuclear-armed and some very hostile.


Do you truly believe that the US government knew about 9/11 but failed to prevent it?CHRIS QUIGLEY, by email

Clearly the US government did not know the precise time and location of the al-Qa'ida attack, but equally clearly there was a great deal of intelligence beforehand which, for whatever reason, it seems that they did not follow up.


You have suggested that the US government knew about the 9/11 attacks (which is pretty obvious I reckon, but fair play to you nonetheless). How complicit do you believe the UK Government was in 7/7? PAUL HUGHES, by email

Not at all.


Do you also believe that the FBI shot John F Kennedy, that Princess Diana was murdered and the US government has covered up the landing of aliens?BEN TROTTER, Cirencester

No. Such allegations are cheap and rather silly.


What steps will you propose to counter global warming? DR GEORGE BLAIR, by email

We should rapidly increase our use of renewable sources of energy (windpower, solar, and micro-generation in people's homes). We should require the airline industry, like every other industry, to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions each year. We should increase vehicle excise duty sharply for gas-guzzling cars and use the proceeds to subsidise bus and rail, and smaller-engine cars. We should give each family a carbon entitlement which then has to be reduced each year.


How often have you flown in the past 12 months? FIONA MILLS, Edinburgh

Not at all.


You criticise the 'Westminster bubble' but said you spent the last two months talking to MPs about your campaign. Does this not show you have the same disrespect for people's views as the rest of the Westminster bubble? MARSHA JANE THOMPSON, by email

I said that when people around the country come to vote, they may well take a quite different view of things from the inward-looking Westminster scene, and should be listened to. But I also extensively canvassed my colleagues in the Parliamentary Labour Party because they alone are the ones who make the nominations.


Why did it take you so long to announce your intention to stand for the Labour leadership when John McDonnell has been campaigning up and down the country for months?MAX MITCHELL, by email

I have been told that John McDonnell announced his candidature without consulting his colleagues. I thought it right first to consult extensively to confirm that my candidature would have the necessary range of support.


What are your guilty pleasures (apart from homeowning)?ALICE SHERWOOD, Tadworth

Wouldn't you like to know! Dropping childish comments in the waste paper basket is one of them.


You always look a bit boring. Are you? ROB JACKSON, by email

No. Why? Are you?

March 02, 2007

Miserable pay increase is a real terms pay cut

The public sector pay increase announced yesterday is unduly harsh pay settlement for the million public sector pay workers who are being told they can only have a 1.9% increase when inflation is now running at 4.2% - in other words, they are getting a 2.3% pay cut.

The reasons given are, firstly the state of the public finances, which is of course the Chancellor’s responsibility, but I don’t see why nurses should have to bail him out. If there are to be stringencies I don’t think nurses should only get an increase of less than 10 pounds a week, when junior doctors are getting nearly 20 pounds a week, senior civil servants 40 pounds a week extra and judges 80 pounds a week extra.

The second reason given is the need to keep inflation under control. But the Treasury itself said the inflation increase has been a blip and inflation will fall this year anyway. I don’t see why a temporary blip should be used as an excuse to impose a real terms pay cut on some of the poorest and most needed workers in our society.

This is bound to play badly on the chancellors standing with the unions. They expect him to be fair and equitable in the way he settles public sector pay and I don’t think this increase meets that criterion. This pretty miserable settlement should be reconsidered.

February 23, 2007

Why I want to be prime minister

From cif_header.gif

There are three reasons why there should be an election for a new leader when Tony Blair finally goes. Only an election confers democratic legitimacy on the succession. Second, party members expect to have a choice about who should lead them. They have hardly been listened to for most of the last 13 years, and have every right to demand that their voice be listened to now. And third, there are major differences of view about the government's direction of travel which need to be understood, debated and voted on within the party. There are other, better alternatives.

New Labour has over-centralised power at the top, which has undermined democratic accountability at all levels. Its economy, driven exclusively by market forces, has played down intervention to secure a stronger manufacturing industry, a more balanced regional policy, and a lift out of its low pay, low skill, low productivity base. Its authoritarian civil society has eroded civil liberties across the board. Its deregulatory philosophy plays down environmental standards and labour rights.

Its indifference to, indeed embrace of, inequality -- "New Labour is relaxed about people getting filthy rich", as Peter Mandelson told us so charmingly -- has presided over a sharp increase in the gap between rich and poor. And its obsession with privatisation is leaching away the public service ideals which lie at the heart of a caring and committed society.

Because Labour and Tory policies are now so similar, politics has increasingly focused on personalities. But that is a fundamental misapprehension. A large part of the electorate on the centre-left, perhaps even a majority, has effectively been disenfranchised for the last three decades. Old-style Toryism was discarded by the voters in 1997, and now New Labour -- the continuing moving right show -- has clearly run its course. It's time, not for old Labour , but for a new implementation of core Labour values in a modern progressive politics addressing today's profound problems.

We need a new foreign policy which is based on fundamental British interests, not subservience to the US, particularly over the middle east. If our political status is to rise across the world, it is not sustainable to continue as America's glove puppet. We need a new social policy if the growing divisions within our society are to be healed. It is not sustainable for £9 billion of city bonuses to be doled out last year while 12.5 million people, a fifth of the population, remain in poverty.

We need a new penal policy if we are going to be genuinely as tough on the causes of crime as on crime itself. It is not sustainable to go on banging people up even faster than we can build prisons without trying to deal with the underlying causes of criminality and doing more to reduce recidivism. We need a new climate change and energy policy if we are not to become over-dependent on imported fossil fuels. It is not sustainable, let alone not legal, to go on fighting wars to grab control of the remaining reserves of Middle East oil when anyway the oil will soon run out.

So what should be done? To end the continuing horrendous carnage in Iraq, to complete our troop withdrawal and break the impasse over Palestine, we should use our political clout to initiate a wider international peace conference bringing together all the relevant actors for a joint settlement of the related middle east issues of contention which from experience cannot be resolved singly. That must include not only Iraq and Palestine within such a grand bargain, but above all a negotiated, not a military, settlement over Iran. If the US were to attack Iran, I would not put at risk a single British soldier or a single RAF pilot in support of such a crazed venture.

Domestically, the Unicef report marking Britain bottom of the table for children's experience shows how urgent it is to reverse the growing rich-poor divide. Less inequality leads to less violence, stronger community life, better health, longer life expectancy, lower teenage birth rates, as well as more social mobility and higher educational attainment. We should start by raising the national minimum wage (one of Labour's best achievements) quickly to £6 an hour, and then soon to £7 an hour. And recognising that wealth creation is not an individual but a team effort, we should move towards a system where there is no more than an acceptable ratio between top pay and bottom pay, so that pay rises at the top draw up the lower paid behind them too.

Globally we are at war against climate change. Business as usual, while relying on improved technology as a get-out card, is a fool's game. We need a profound change in every aspect of government and our way of life -- not just energy, but transport, industry, building, agriculture, public expenditure and taxation, and foreign policy, in order in every area to give absolute priority to combating climaten change. We need a crash programme, as we have done before in wartime, to develop renewable sources of energy, in which we are very well endowed, plus a massive programme to improve energy efficiency and energy conservation.

Peace, social justice, climate survival - those should be our top priorities. That is why the future lies with a centre-left agenda, and clearly there must be a centre-left candidate to lead this agenda forward who has the necessary nominations in the Parliamentary Labour Party to stand. I am fully confident I do have that necessary level of support, and that is why I am standing.

December 15, 2006

With great power ... (from Comment is Free)

Two current stories throw a searchlight on contemporary Britain. Farepak collapses, taking with it the £41m that 150,000 customers had saved towards their Christmas hampers. The customers have no rights because Farepak is technically not a deposit-taking bank. Three Natwest bankers are extradited to the US accused of conspiring with senior executives of the now-collapsed Enron to defraud their employers of £20m. There is a row about why they were sent to the US, but that misses the point. Why were no charges brought in this country when their alleged crimes were committed in Britain against a British firm?

It is now typical for the government to turn a blind eye to mega-scale crime or cheating of customers while relentlessly pursuing the pettiest of offenders with Asbos. Corporate crime in particular now almost always goes unpunished, indicating just how far corporate power, allied with a pro-big business government, insulates its holders against redress.

Continue reading "With great power ... (from Comment is Free)" »

June 22, 2006

We can learn a lesson from U.S. in how to protect manufacturing

Even before the recent rally in manufacturing has taken root, the prospect of the Bank of England raising interest rates this autumn threatens to choke it off. This is ominous when the manufacturing base, the lifeblood of the country, has still not reversed its long-term decline.

Continue reading "We can learn a lesson from U.S. in how to protect manufacturing" »

June 06, 2004

The fuel debate is not about 2p, but the future of the planet

(This article originally appeared in the Independent on Sunday.)

The fact that Gordon Brown has agreed to "review" his plan to raise fuel duty by 2p per litre in September - and the consequent calling off of all but one of the planned fuel protests yesterday - has been greeted with sighs of relief all round. Thank heavens for that. We'd all prefer an issue ducked to an embarrassing row, wouldn't we? But now Elliot Morley has popped up and, according to one newspaper, "shattered Labour's fragile truce with the fuel protesters". He says "A simplistic knee-jerk reaction to short-term petrol supply problems is not the answer."

Well, good for him. The whole debate is taking place on the wrong basis. The issue is not merely the price to the car or truck driver (after all, the real cost of motoring has actually fallen in the past two decades), but whether petrol price policy should be driven by Middle East oil markets or by a looming global warming catastrophe.

There is now abundant evidence that global warming is proceeding fasterthan scientists had previously predicted. If we carry on down our present path, we shall treble the amount of carbon dioxide that we emit by 2100, to a level of 1,000 parts per million, twice what scientists regard as a safe level. Greenhouse gas emissions from cars and lorries are now the fastest-rising cause of global warming. Unlike the last time we were in this situation, at the truck drivers' fuel protest in 2000, when the environment wasn't even mentioned, it should now occupy centre stage. The Government should have the courage to make the case - squarely and without apology - that fuel duty is a key instrument in controlling carbon dioxide emissions.

The counter to this argument is that increasing petrol duty is politically unpopular. It will not even be effective: the number of cars around the world, especially in developing countries such as China and India, is set to rise exponentially. Second, greenhouse gas emissions from industry - notably a massive increase in coal-burning to fuel China's increasing industrialisation - are growing rapidly. These will not be affected by Western transport taxes.

However, if the West (including eventually the US, by far the worst polluter) does not give a lead when we are the biggest offenders, countries such as China and India, with two-fifths of the world's population, will not follow suit. So the utterly devastating consequences of global warming will simply be visited on the whole world more quickly. If we delay until climatic disaster is so intense that we are forced to take action in order to survive, it will be too late because scientists believe there is at least a 200-year lead time before measures taken now will begin to cut carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

But it does mean standing up to the vested interests, which the Government hitherto has not been good at, whether over tobacco advertising, promotion of unhealthy fast foods, airline subsidies or alcohol advertising. In the case of the transport lobby, it means sending out a clear and unambiguous message, whether for road traffic or air travel, that there are environmental costs that have to be paid for in full, not least to encourage the search for less damaging means of travel.

It is therefore a much, much bigger issue than whether or not to raise fuel duty by 2p a litre. Nor will pleading with Opec to increase production quotas have much effect when the output of member countries is already 10 per cent above the formal quota limits. What is needed is a long-term policy to escape the regular cycle whereby governments push billions of dollars into investing in alternative energy sources as oil markets tighten, only to allow such investments to dissipate as the oil crisis eases.

First, the Government should keep fuel duty steady in real terms, but make clear that it is adding a surcharge of, say, three per cent a year for environmental reasons. The extra proceeds should not accrue to the Exchequer, but should be invested in alternative, affordable public transport. Second, because the end of Big Oil is now in sight and steadily increasing demand will overtake supply by 2010-15 - pushing up the price of oil inexorably - a sustained multibillion pound investment in renewable energy is imperative. The eclipse of oil, the gradual rundown of coal and the phase-out of nuclear power, heralded in last year's Energy White Paper, now need to be followed through in founding the new energy world order. That is the real lesson of the 2p debate.
6 June 2004

April 07, 2004

You reap what you sow

Biotech giant Bayer has halted GM cultivation in Britain because of flawed trials and financial risk. If only the government was so wise, says Michael Meacher.

The Guardian

Why did Bayer do it? The company's decision to pull its genetically modified Chardon LL maize so soon after the British government authorised its cultivation is a huge setback for the industry and a major embarrassment for the prime minister's championship of GM.

Bayer said the conditions imposed by the government were too restrictive - richly ironic when the government is leaving no stone unturned to get GM crops approved and grown in Britain. Ministers had already gone out of their way to wave t