Is growth still possible?
May 30th, 2010The economic skies have rarely looked darker. The determination of the coalition government to press ahead with major spending cuts this year (assuming that the appointment of the inexperienced Danny Alexander as Chief Secretary doesn’t change the direction of policy) looks more dangerous by the day, given how the international economic environment is steadily worsening.
The growing contagion in the Eurozone directly threatens the UK recovery even though (thankfully) we are not members of it. Some 60% of UK exports go to the EU, including 50% to the Eurozone. If the Eurozone breaks up – an increasing likelihood – the Tory Little Englanders won’t get the economic common market of their dreams, but a collapsing system of debt default, competitive devaluations, and widespread stagnation. A significant loss of UK export markets would undermine bond-holders’ confidence that the UK, locked in recession, could soon escape the vicious spiral when caught between rising debt charges and deepening recession. (more…)

