Crises ahoy

May 20th, 2010

After Clegg’s absurd hyperbolic puff about his (welcome) civil liberties reforms being the most radical programme since the Great Reform Act of 1832, the Cons-LibDems are now facing reality on several fronts – three in particular.

First, the Eurozone nightmare is ominously beginning to lap round the shores of the UK.   Having defenestrated Greece, the bond markets are now prowling round their next potential victims – Spain, Portugal, Ireland, UK.   Within a year or two the UK could well have the largest public deficit as a proportion of GDP in the EU.   The bond markets are assessing, not the rhetoric of ‘savage cuts’, but what the coalition actually delivers – where exactly they draw the line between cutting the short-term cost of debt to restore market confidence whilst not putting economic recovery at risk.   They will be looking at UK growth prospects where Government forecasts of 3.5% are widely seen as uproariously optimistic.   They will be judging whether the Eurozone can survive without either greater fiscal harmonisation or much closer moves to political union to safeguard the currency, and how an alternative new Stability and Growth Pact might impact on UK economic prospects. (more…)