We’re entering the rapids

January 19th, 2011

The combination of the 49,000 rise in unemployment to over 2.5 million, plus the biggest monthly rise in inflation on record to 3.7%, is explosive.   Two factors make this even more disturbing.   One is that this unprecedented hike in inflation, 0.4% in a single month, comes before the impact of the rise in VAT to 20% kicks in.   The second is that the big one-month rise in unemployment clearly foreshadows a gathering momentum in joblessness – most worryingly for young people – as sharply rising costs (with oil in particular now nearly $100 a barrel) choke off business activity and consumer confidence falls as the price and spending cuts squeeze takes effect.   So what should be done? (more…)