The Westminster establishment, to which all the three main political parties are seen to sign up, is the most toxic brew in modern British politics. It has led to UKIP which robbed the Tories of Clacton and likely Rochester as well as almost certainly several Tory seats at the next election, and which came within an ace of robbing Labour of Heywood and Middleton. It has now led to the SNP where the some polls suggest that, of the 59 constituencies in Scotland where Labour currently holds 41 and the Tories 1, it will capture between 47-54 of these seats and leave Labour with only 5-10 seats. Less dramatic polls indicate the SNP might take 23-26 seats, but that could still have severe reverberations for Labour. Next May’s election could well hang on whether UKIP does more damage to the Tories than the SNP does to Labour in Scotland. However the 6 months still to go is a long time in politics, and for both the two main parties the counter-argument will be spread relentlessly: for the Tories, vote Miliband and wake up with Farage, and for Labour, vote SNP and you deliver yet another London-based Tory government at Westminster. Those arguments may yet get some considerable play.